The Euro Bounces
At the writing of this blog entry, it appears that the Euro is reaching its first level of support that it will actually bounce off of in its descent. If you look at the following charts for FX EUR/USD and the ETF that tracks euro / us dollar trades FXE, you will see that today appears to be reversing the very steep slide of the Euro that's been fueled by the Greek economic collapse and subsequent EU bail out.

EUR/USD trade comparison.
The actual values aren't important for the purposes of this blog post. Notice that yesterdays closing low is about equal to today's opening low as the value of the Euro rises. This means that FOREX traders are interested in buying the euro again.

FXE - CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF
Not even midday through trading and you may notice that volume is already WELL above the average trading volume for this ETF. And the reversal at this point seems pretty strong.
Much of the recent race to the bottom in the market the past few days has been spurred by the declining Euro and ascending US Dollar. That's why it's important to see this reversal pattern today. For the time being, it is wholly possible that the descent has been put on hold. However, be aware of a number of things. The market was due for a moderate correction and this is likely that. Also, the declining Euro was due primarily to economic troubles in Greece that are FAR from rectified. This is also a time of year that is historically under-productive with regards to stock prices. Add into that the trade error that caused a 1000-point error in the DOW yesterday and we have a very nervous investor populace.
That being said, I think that it's key for people to look for the next high point and then begin the process of looking into more short or bearish positions. With the soaring VIX there is a fortune to be made in options trades. Some people were able to capitalize on other huge moves yesterday just as Jim Cramer explained.
Another option is the bond market. If you look at TLT and IEF, two ETFs that follow 20+ year and 7-10 year bonds respectively, you will notice that the steep decline in stocks coincided with huge gains in the bond market. After spiking yesterday, you will notice that bonds are pulling back today as the market reverses some of its negative movement. You can be sure that if and when stocks resume their descent, the bond market will move inversely and this can provide investors with a long investment opportunity.

No feedback yet
Leave a comment