16
Nov

NFL Power Rankings After Week 10

This week I wanted to gripe a little. I'm pretty sure that I've mentioned this in a prior post, but it bares explaining again. The reason why I decided to design my own mathematical power rankings based on a set algorithm was because I haven't been able to find one for the NFL anywhere else. Sure, you can go to the NFL.com page and check the standings and use their tie-breaker criteria to determine where teams might rank in, say, a playoff race. But that just wasn't very interesting to me. NCAA football has mathematical power rankings that the BCS generates based on some top secret algorithm. Even prep football (high school) across the U.S. has a state and national ranking system that uses strength of schedule and other factors to determine power rankings. A power ranking is a ranking system based on WHO the teams have played and WHO the teams have beat. Number are objectively assigned to these variables and an algorithm calculates what team has shown itself to be better thus far.

Here's where the NFL power rankings that you may find are different. Even on NFL.com, there is a power rankings page that is updated every week. It's columned by some yahoo that tells you how much he knows about pro football and why HE ranks teams in different spots due to his personal OPINION. That's not a power ranking. That's some expert (or amateur in some cases) trying to debate his position based on whatever facts he is considering at that moment. This can be influenced and changed on a weekly basis by more factors than wins and losses and against whom. For example, Oakland loses their starting quarterback and following two games. "Oakland's out of it!" Yet they come back with a win last week and stay atop the, albeit very weak, AFC West. I want math, not some random dude with his own personal preferences telling me why he thinks the Giants are better than the Cowboys despite the fact that the Cowboys have more quality wins and a tougher schedule up to this point in the season.

Anyway, if you want objective analysis of the NFL teams in a mathematically calculated rankings list, here's the only place I've found that has it. So enjoy. Or don't. This is what I'm interested and I couldn't find it, so I made my own.

NFL Power Rankings

1. Green Bay Packers (9-0) 1.959
2. San Francisco 49ers (8-1) 1.709
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) 1.215
4. New Orleans Saints (7-3) 1.162
5. Detroit Lions (6-3) 1.149
6. Chicago Bears (6-3) 1.145
7. Houston Texans (7-3) 1.109
8. New England Patriots (6-3) 1.094
9. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) 0.956
10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) 0.943
11. New York Giants (6-3) 0.883
12. New York Jets (5-4) 0.744
13. Dallas Cowboys (5-4) 0.731
14. Buffalo Bills (5-4) 0.719
15. Atlanta Falcons (5-4) 0.713
16. Oakland Raiders (5-4) 0.698
17. Tennessee Titans (5-4) 0.639
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) 0.517
19. Denver Broncos (4-5) 0.486
20. San Diego Chargers (4-5) 0.467
21. Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) 0.405
22. Seattle Seahawks (3-6) 0.266
23. Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) 0.265
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) 0.263
25. Cleveland Browns (3-6) 0.231
26. Arizona Cardinals (3-6) 0.219
27. Washington Redskins (3-6) 0.206
28. Minnesota Vikings (2-7) 0.120
29. Carolina Panthers (2-7) 0.113
30. St. Louis Rams (2-7) 0.107
31. Miami Dolphins (2-7) 0.098
32. Indianapolis Colts (0-10) 0.000

AFC East

Now after talking about how my rankings are objective, I'm going to appear to reverse all that and use the objective data to give you my opinion. (I hope the smart people see why that's funny and not really hypocritical.) The Dolphins are clearly not contenders. With New England finishing a sweep of the Jets last week, it looks like the Jets are going to have to fight for a wild card spot. They have a shot still, but they'll be competing against teams like the Ravens, Bengals, Bills and possibly the Steelers or Titans. Between the Ravens, Bengals and Bills alone, that's a rough go. The Bills are in the same boat, but I wonder if they have slowed down some after their pretty solid start this season. Note that the Bills have had a slightly tougher schedule, but the Jets have had slightly higher quality wins according to the ranking.

AFC North

This is arguably the most exciting division in football right now. First question is, where the heck did these Bengals come from? As an underdog fan, I was excited to see them suddenly near the top of the rankings this season and last weekend I was cheering for them to beat the Steelers. I don't have any problem with the Steelers, I just like a good underdog story. But the Steelers pulled a needed win over the Bengals to bring them to the top of the division after the Ravens lost to a weak Seattle. Pittsburgh has a bye this coming week and the Bengals face the Ravens. Whoever wins that matchup will be tied atop the division with the Steelers. The loser will be looking at a drag out war for a wild card spot. The rankings just barely favor the Ravens and the Bengals definitely had a shot at taking the Steelers last weekend, so this game should NOT disappoint.

Do not be surprised at all to see all three of those teams make the playoffs. Does anyone even know who the fourth team is in that division?

AFC South

I need to apologize in advance, but I just don't care about this division. After Vince Young in Tennessee I'm still soured. I'm not a Young fan. (Coincidentally, I'm not a fan of Steve either.) Houston has never done it for me and neither has Jacksonville, although I love Maurice Jones-Drew. And while I like Indy, they've always walked through this division, which wasn't exciting, and now they can't seem to buy a win. I just don't find this division exciting in the least. No matter. The Texans are actually looking pretty good, ranked 8 overall in the NFL. Indy is out and I don't see Jacksonville pulling off anything good enough to get them into the playoffs. There is, then, the question of the Titans. They are ranked the lowest amongst the 5-4 teams with the weakest schedule of them all. They also have to be able to beat out the Bengals, Ravens, Bills and Jets to get a wildcard berth. Good luck, Titans fans.

AFC West

This division is usually fun to watch in much the same way that a dumpster full of burning kittens is fun to watch. That is, it's not. But you can't turn away from the horror no matter how hard you try. You have the Raiders with a winning record (at least at the moment) despite some pretty big set backs. Then you have the Chargers, Chiefs and Broncos who all seem to be fighting for the bottom of the league. The second one team starts to look like they may have a chance, they screw it up. I'm close to putting Phillip Rivers back in the "head case" category with Jay Cutler after spending two seasons believing that maybe he grew up. But he can't seem to keep his gravy together and his defense isn't helping. The Chiefs manage to look good at times and then Cassel starts to look like Cassel. And the Broncos? What a mess. Did they really just win a game last week with their starting quarterback only throwing 8 passes and, worse yet, only completing 2!? I don't want to watch the games, but I sure love hearing the highlights and stats.

The bottom three are in a tight race and Oakland is not far ahead. If they don't shoot themselves in the foot, Oakland should be able to top Minnesota this Sunday. Denver doesn't look to stand a chance against the Jets. KC has their hands full with the Pats. And SD really needs to pull a win off against a surging Bears team if they want to stay close.

NFC East

Okay, just to avoid people calling be biased here, I want to explain something. I can't STAND the Cowboys. I don't like Romo, I don't like Jones and I don't like pretty much anything about the state of Texas. I also don't mind the Giants so much. However, the numbers here STILL say the same thing I've been saying all season. The Giants had had the easiest schedule in the NFL going into last week's game against the 49ers. They had few quality wins and didn't manage to get another over San Francisco. The Cowboys have had a much tougher schedule and still managed a 5-4 record. By the end of the season, all the teams in a division will have played the same teams. What does that mean? It means that now the Giants have to play all the tough teams that Dallas already dealt with. Here's the upcoming schedule for the Giants:

vs. Philadelphia
@ New Orleans
vs. Green Bay
@ Dallas
vs. Washington
@ New York Jets
vs. Dallas

Up until the last game, I would have said that the Giants didn't have a chance against Green Bay or New Orleans. If you're placing money in Vegas, I still wouldn't bet in the Giants' favor in those games, but last weak the Giants finally convinced me that they know how to play football this season. However, the fact still stands that they didn't pull off that quality win. Dallas still has two opportunities to wrest control of the division from them. They also have to beat the Jets who are no slouches and will running hot the rest of the season, trying to earn a wild card berth. Philadelphia will be a telling game this week and Washington looks to be their only "gimme" game. Here you go, Dallas fans. This is the time of the season when Dallas could make a legitimate run for the playoffs. Enjoy.

NFC North

"Green Bay looks unstoppable" blah, blah, blah. I'm a Green Bay fan, so I'm not as sick of that mantra as I should be, but I'm not going to harp on it here. Everyone is already hearing it. Let's talk about the Lions and, holy crap!, where did those Bears bounce back from? At the beginning of the season I didn't think the Bear or Vikings stood a chance at making it into the playoffs. Cutler still can't play under pressure, but his team is playing some GREAT football and making it so he doesn't have the opportunity to melt down. And the Lions lost a little steam, but I'm still very curious to see how things wind down this season. Remember, the Lions and Bears are running tight in the 6 and 7 spots in the NFL, but the Lions still have to face the Packers twice. They will need to at least hand Green Bay their first loss to show that they are still true contenders. Although, if Green Bay sweeps the Lions, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chicago in and Detroit out come January.

NFC South

Saints should be able to finish off the season atop their division. Atlanta has looked great in some games and not-quite-great in others. They still have a chance at the playoffs, but they're going to need some key wins (a la Tennesee, Houston and New Orleans). I'm also really bummed that Carolina hasn't done better. There's a lot to be said about that team and what's happening there, but I'll leave that for another time when I want to devote an entire post to it.

NFC West

Much like the AFC West, I have a hard time not paying attention to this division. Granted, the 49ers are clearly going to walk away with the division at this point. The Seahawks, Cardinals and Rams are so bad, I feel like I'm watching an episode of Jersey Shore. Clearly nobody's making the playoffs, but I want to see how many A-list teams these guys will beat just to keep everything exciting in the NFL playoff picture. How'd that feel, Baltimore?

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